According to Andre Dragosch, BTC accelerates when U.S. governance quality deteriorates and the dollar weakens, implying a risk-hedge bid for crypto during macro stress (source: Andre Dragosch on X, Aug 17, 2025). Historically, BTC has shown extended periods of negative 90-day correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index, indicating that USD weakness often coincided with BTC strength for multi-week windows (source: Kaiko Research market updates 2023-2024). In Q4 2023, a drop in DXY from the mid-100s was accompanied by a sharp BTC rally, illustrating the inverse USD–BTC relationship in practice (source: ICE Data Indices for DXY and Coin Metrics price series, Q4 2023). BTC has also tended to move inversely with U.S. real yields, with declines in 10-year TIPS yields aligning with broader risk-on behavior in digital assets (source: Coin Metrics and Glassnode research briefs 2022-2024). Traders commonly monitor DXY, 10-year real yields, and Treasury volatility via the MOVE Index to time BTC breakouts around policy or liquidity shocks (source: Coinbase Institutional weekly markets commentary 2023-2024).

According to @godbole17, U.S. bond volatility has collapsed with the MOVE index dropping to its lowest level since January 2022, signaling looser financial conditions, source: @godbole17. According to @godbole17, the decline in the bond market’s VIX supports risk-on positioning in equities and crypto, especially BTC and ETH, source: @godbole17.